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Sentiment Flip

In light of new highs and significant volatility the last couple of weeks, we wanted to take a look ahead at a couple potential scenarios for the market. Below is what we have been chewing over,...

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Conservatism Bias: How to know what new information to focus on

Intro Traditional finance famously makes lot of incorrect assumptions about how humans make decisions. They assume that we are fully rational, and process infinite information almost instantly....

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Confirmation bias: A dependable filter of objective information

This series might sound like a crazy rant against using your gut instincts to ever make investment decisions. In fact, when we first put this list together that was EXACTLY how it seemed. But when you...

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Representativeness Bias: Easy Classifications

Representativeness bias is when you classify new info based on classifications that have worked in your past experiences. We derive meaning from our past experiences and lean on them to make life...

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April is very bullish in a weird way

April is well known as the most bullish month of the year. Let’s look a little deeper and study this perfect example of potential ways to use adverse market conditions to your advantage. Seasonality is...

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The upside of low probability outcomes

Waiting for low probability anomalies happen  can tip you off to trend changes in a stock and lead to high payout setups. You don’t have to be first in the pool on a good idea. Most of the time, people...

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70 days of suffering in WalMart

Everyone says they’d like to buy blue chips on a pull back. The problem is that it take a lot to disrupt the returns of these glacial behemoths. So when they do pull back, they don’t look so nice from...

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How does Apple trade after earnings?

How can I play $AAPL after around earnings? This is a question that has plagued traders since the beginning of time. There’s now a way to understand and interpret this conundrum in a couple of clicks....

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Momentum Mechanism

  I want to touch on a couple reasons why momentum works and why I see it as one of the few durable edges in the market. With markets becoming more efficient every year, and edges coming and going...

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Quick observations on the 200-day moving average

  The market briefly closed below the 200-day moving average this week so let’s look at some recent history market behavior around the 200-day moving average. If you took every trade (on the next...

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Simple rule to improve financial decisions

Why are financial decisions so difficult? Not just the ones related to investing and trading but the ones that spill over into every day life. Obviously, the stakes are high because money is involved....

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Sector Momentum Visualized

A couple of months ago I wrote a post about the behavioral principals behind the momentum effect in the markets. In that post, I highlighted some reasons why momentum persists and how to internalize...

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Is your brain a fortress or a wild bus ride?

One year ago, I had a profound experience that completely changed the way I look at psychology, decision making, and personal development. The accident A good friend of mine has a congenital heart...

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Macro that matters

The market has lost momentum, prices are trending down, and sentiment is terrible. Lots of people are writing about the many warning signs. Depending on your time horizon and strategy it might make...

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Market maps and cycle changes

The biggest debate in markets over the past two months is whether the late August drop would lead to a deeper decline and potential recession or whether it’s a buying opportunity. Let’s look at the...

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Volatility expands at the end of a bull market

We all know that volatility tends to expand when in a downtrending bear market. Less frequently, volatility expands when price is trending higher. One of the things I look for when trying to anticipate...

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Seasons of the market

A sunny and bullish trending market showering your portfolio with gains feels incredible. During the market summer, bearish sentiment quickly turns cautiously optimistic and the tape transitions from...

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Pattern Recognition vs Pattern Matching

Pattern recognition is an incredible skill that we mostly do without even noticing. Pattern recognition is not the same as pattern matching. Pattern matching dictates that what we are looking for is...

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Underlying behavioral trends

It seems the market is in a downtrend, but trends can be notoriously difficult to identify in their early stages. Trend fakeouts are just of the many factors that make trend following so difficult in...

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Three Ways To Be In Service To the Market

The constant drone of controversy you hear in the background on active vs passive management and rules-based vs discretionary and how you “outsmart” other investors obscures the fact that there are...

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